College degrees are no longer worth the cost

What's this about?

People disagree about whether college degrees are no longer worth their cost. The answer can change with the price, study field, school, and job.

What supporters say

• Some new grads may take jobs below their skill level, or wait longer for good work.
• When many jobs ask for a degree, school may become a costly gate, not a clear sign of better work.
• High prices and large loans can make some degrees poor deals, mainly when students do not finish.

What critics say

• Studies that test cause find that college raises pay for many people over their lives.
• On average, degree holders earn more and find work more often than people without degrees.
• Fields like engineering, computer work, business, and health often bring the best pay gains.

How to read this

The number of points on each side does not show which side wins; check how strong each point's proof is.

The bottom line

College still pays off for many people, so the broad claim is wrong. But the value can vary a lot, and high costs, large loans, and some fields can make college a bad deal.

The claim that college degrees are no longer worth the cost is too broad. College still offers positive economic returns on average, but the value of a degree can vary sharply depending on its price, field, institution, likelihood of completion and the student’s eventual job.

The case for

A degree can be a poor investment when students pay a high net price, borrow heavily or leave school without graduating. Those who do not complete a credential may keep the debt while missing much of the earnings advantage associated with a degree. High prices and debt therefore create real risks for some students, especially when the program leads to relatively low earnings 1.

The payoff is also uneven across majors and institutions. Lifetime earnings are generally stronger in engineering, computer science, business and health-related fields than in several arts and service-oriented areas. Earnings, debt and repayment prospects can differ substantially from one college or program to another. A degree is not a single product with a single financial return.

Credential inflation adds another concern. As more jobs require degrees, some employers may treat college as a costly screening requirement rather than evidence of a proportional increase in productivity or pay 2. In that situation, students may spend years and take on debt simply to compete for jobs that once required less education.

Recent graduates can also struggle at the start of their careers. New York Federal Reserve indicators show periods of elevated unemployment and underemployment among recent graduates, particularly during weak labor markets 3. These figures do not prove that college produces negative lifetime returns, but they show why the investment can feel unattractive when loan payments begin before long-term earnings advantages appear.

The case against

The strongest evidence points the other way. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that in 2023, workers with bachelor’s degrees had median weekly earnings of $1,533, compared with $946 for workers whose education ended with high school. Bachelor’s-degree holders also had lower unemployment. These figures are associations rather than a complete test of cause and effect, but they are consistent with the broader finding that degree holders have better average labor-market outcomes 4.

Causal studies provide a stronger basis for that conclusion. Research using comparisons designed to separate education’s effect from people’s pre-existing differences finds that attending college raises earnings on average. Reviews of the research likewise find substantial private financial returns. This evidence directly challenges the idea that college generally fails to pay off, even though it does not show that every degree or enrollment decision is worthwhile 5.

The average return is especially strong in fields with steady labor demand, including engineering, computing, business and health care 6. Students may also improve the economics of college by attending at a controlled net cost rather than relying on advertised tuition prices. Grants and institutional aid can make the amount actually paid much lower than the published price.

College may bring benefits beyond wages, including better health, civic participation and life satisfaction. Those gains are difficult to measure in money and do not make every program worthwhile, but they are part of the broader cost-benefit picture.

The bottom line

The evidence does not support the claim as stated. College degrees generally retain positive economic value, and the strongest evidence—including causal research—favors that conclusion. But the support is moderate rather than absolute: average results cannot reliably predict the outcome for every student.

The central uncertainty is distributional. A degree is more likely to pay off when the student is likely to graduate, pays a manageable net price, avoids excessive debt and chooses a field and institution with solid employment prospects. Recent underemployment, credential inflation and weak program-level outcomes show that some degrees can be poor investments. The evidence therefore rejects a blanket rule in either direction: college is not automatically worth the cost, but it is generally not “no longer” worth it.