Your November 3 ballot

ProConWiki never tells you how to vote. Each measure below shows what the official voter guide says it does, then the evidence people cite on each side.

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Proposition 1 · Proposition 2 · Proposition 3 · Proposition 4 · Proposition 5 · Proposition 37 · Proposition 38 · Proposition 39 · Proposition 40 · Proposition 41 · Proposition 42 · Proposition 43 · Proposition 44 · Proposition 45

How to vote

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Mailing your ballot? It must be postmarked by November 3 and arrive by November 10. You can also drop it at any official drop box or vote center by 8 p.m. on November 3.
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Your ballot at a glance

Aldo's short version: one line per measure, quoted from the official text. Tap through for the full information on each.

Proposition 1YES: The state could borrow $11.25 billion to support veterans and affordable housing. NO: The state could not borrow $11.25 billion to support veterans and affordable housing.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 2YES: Rules for building state budget reserves and paying down extra state debts would change. As a result, state budget reserves would be higher. The state also would be required to make extra debt payments for longer. NO: Rules for building state budget reserves and paying down extra state debts would not change.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 3YES: An income tax increase on high-income earners in place since 2012 would become permanent instead of expiring in 2031. NO: An income tax increase on high-income earners in place since 2012 would expire in 2031.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 4YES: State and local governments could create public campaign financing programs for public office candidates, subject to limits on which public funds could be used, how the public funds could be used, and who could receive them. NO: State and most local governments would remain unable to create public campaign finance programs for public office candidates.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 5YES: Recall elections would no longer include a question about who should fill the vacancy. Instead, vacancies typically would be filled through special elections or appointments, depending on the office and timing. NO: Voters would continue to be asked who should fill the vacancy as part of recall elections.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 37YES: The state would create a new homebuying assistance program. The state could sell up to $25 billion in revenue bonds to fund the program. Bonds would be paid back by homeowners' payments on their home loans. NO: The state would not be required to create a new homebuying assistance program.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 38YES: The state could borrow $8.4 billion to support medical research in immunology and immunotherapy conducted by California research institutes and universities. NO: The state could not borrow $8.4 billion to support medical research in immunology and immunotherapy conducted by California research institutes and universities.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 39YES: Voters would be required to present additional identifying information to elections officials each time they vote. NO: A voter's identity would continue to be established with the voter's signature.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 40YES: The state would collect a one-time tax from billionaires equal to 5 percent of their wealth. NO: The state would not collect a one-time tax from billionaires equal to 5 percent of their wealth.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 41YES: When special taxes are proposed by voter initiatives, the California State Auditor would review programs funded by the tax before the initiative appears on the ballot. The California State Auditor also would regularly review programs funded by special taxes approved by voters or the Legislature. In addition, the state might not be able to exclude any new special tax spending from its spending limit. NO: The California State Auditor's responsibility to review government programs would not change. The state spending limit requirements would not change.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 42YES: The state could not establish new taxes on the ownership of financial assets or other personal property. NO: The state would continue to have the option to establish new taxes on the ownership of financial assets or other personal property.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 43YES: Certain local government taxes would require two-thirds approval by voters. NO: Certain local government taxes could continue to be approved by voters with a majority vote.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 44YES: Certain private nonprofit health care clinics would have to spend at least 90 percent of their revenue each year on providing health care services. NO: The new requirement on health care clinic spending would not go into effect.Full information · Evidence on both sides
Proposition 45YES: Certain public and private projects would be eligible for new project review and court challenge procedures. For example, new procedures would tighten time limits for environmental review and reduce the scope of what courts can consider when reviewing legal challenges. NO: Public and private projects would continue to use existing project review and court challenge procedures.Full information · Evidence on both sides

California statewide measures

Proposition 1

Authorizes Bonds for Housing Affordability Programs. Legislative Statute.

Put on the Ballot by the Legislature Authorizes $11.25 billion in state general obligation bonds for housing affordability programs, including multifamily rental housing, mortgages for veterans, supportive housing, preservation of existing affordable housing, and downpayment assistance.

A YES vote meansThe state could borrow $11.25 billion to support veterans and affordable housing.

A NO vote meansThe state could not borrow $11.25 billion to support veterans and affordable housing.

Fiscal effect: Increased state cost of $500 million to $600 million annually for about 25 years to repay the housing bond.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

Housing supply is relevant to affordability Peer-reviewed housing research links constrained supply with higher housing costs and finds that additional supply can reduce upward pressure in some markets. Bond funding would not solve regulatory or land-use barriers, but it could complement reforms by financing construction and preservation. [source]
Affordable-housing investment can improve housing stability Research and public-program evidence indicate that subsidized housing can improve housing stability and produce resident or neighborhood benefits when projects are well designed and managed. A bond could provide upfront capital for projects that otherwise would not be built or preserved. [source] [source]

Arguments against

Bond repayment creates a long-term budget obligation General-obligation bonds are repaid with state revenues, so approval commits future budgets to debt service. That cost must be weighed against other public priorities, particularly if the proposition’s housing outcomes are uncertain or implementation is slow. [source]
Targeted benefits may not lower costs for most households Affordable-housing programs generally target particular income groups and locations rather than lowering prices across the entire housing market. Even if funded projects benefit eligible residents, that does not establish that the measure would materially improve affordability for the broader electorate. [source] [source]

See all 4 sources

Proposition 2

Increases State’s Rainy Day Fund. Legislative Constitutional Amendment.

Put on the Ballot by the Legislature Increases California's Rainy Day Fund, approved by voters in 2014, to provide funding for education, health care, public safety, and other essential services during economic downturns.

A YES vote meansRules for building state budget reserves and paying down extra state debts would change. As a result, state budget reserves would be higher. The state also would be required to make extra debt payments for longer.

A NO vote meansRules for building state budget reserves and paying down extra state debts would not change.

Fiscal effect: State budget reserves would be higher.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

The measure would institutionalize saving during boom years Proposition 2 would require deposits until the rainy-day account reaches 20% of General Fund taxes and would require additional deposits in unusually strong capital-gains years. This directly addresses the risk that politically difficult savings will be postponed during periods of high revenue. [source] [source]
Larger reserves could cushion future downturns California’s revenue base is unusually exposed to income and capital-gains fluctuations, and the Legislative Analyst says downturns can reduce revenue by tens of billions of dollars. A larger reserve could help preserve services and reduce abrupt spending cuts, tax increases, or borrowing during a recession. [source] [source]
Extended debt payments may reduce long-term costs The measure extends extra payments toward eligible pension, retiree-health, education, state-fund, and certain federal loans through 2040. Paying down obligations earlier can reduce future interest or liability exposure, although the official analysis says the amount of additional debt payment is uncertain. [source] [source]

Arguments against

A 20% target is not established as optimal Evidence supports maintaining reserves, but the research does not establish that doubling California’s cap is the best target. Pew and the Legislative Analyst emphasize tailoring reserves to revenue volatility, spending obligations, withdrawal rules, and the duration of downturns rather than relying on a universal balance threshold. [source] [source]
Constitutional savings may crowd out current priorities Money deposited into reserves or directed toward debt payments cannot be used immediately for other state purposes. The California Budget & Policy Center argues that the measure could reduce legislative flexibility when California faces needs such as schools, housing, infrastructure, or health programs, even if total reserves rise. [source] [source]

See all 9 sources

Proposition 3

Provides Permanent Funding for Schools and Health Care by Extending Existing Tax on High Incomes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Makes permanent existing voter-approved tax rates for individuals earning over $371,000 (adjusted annually for inflation). Allocates tax revenues to public education.

A YES vote meansAn income tax increase on high-income earners in place since 2012 would become permanent instead of expiring in 2031.

A NO vote meansAn income tax increase on high-income earners in place since 2012 would expire in 2031.

Fiscal effect: Maintains $5 billion to $15 billion of annual state income tax revenue by making a temporary tax increase on high-income earners permanent instead of letting it expire in 2031.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

The measure preserves a major public-service revenue stream The official fiscal analysis estimates that Proposition 3 would preserve $5 billion to $15 billion annually rather than allowing the existing rates to expire. Because the revenue supports schools, community colleges, health care, reserves, and other programs, approval would reduce the need to replace that funding through spending cuts or other taxes. [1][2] [source] [source]
The tax burden is concentrated among very high earners The Legislative Analyst reports that the higher rates apply to roughly the top 2 percent of taxpayers, who pay about half of state income taxes. The measure therefore preserves funding through a narrowly targeted tax rather than a broad-based increase, while the official text keeps the existing rates unchanged. [2][3] [source] [source]
Evidence does not establish a large taxpayer exodus Although high earners respond to tax differences, broader migration research finds that state taxes generally have small effects on interstate moves compared with other factors. This weakens the claim that extending the rates would necessarily eliminate most of the projected revenue through migration. [10][11][13] [source] [source]

Arguments against

The revenue would be unusually volatile The Legislative Analyst estimates a very wide annual range, from $5 billion to $15 billion, because much of the revenue is tied to stock-market-related income. Official revenue estimates and recent budget reporting show that California’s personal-income-tax receipts can swing sharply, making permanent commitments harder to plan. [2][14][15] [source] [source]
More spending does not guarantee better results School-finance research supports average benefits from additional funding, but California-specific studies find that effects depend on targeting, implementation, and local use. Proposition 3 restricts administrative spending from specified funds, yet the official documents do not guarantee particular achievement gains or demonstrate that every district will spend the money effectively. [2][3][6][8] [source] [source]
High earners may reduce taxable income or relocate Peer-reviewed California research finds that high earners change reported income and other behavior in response to state tax differences. These responses could lower actual collections relative to static projections, though the evidence does not show that behavioral effects would erase the entire fiscal gain. [10][11][12] [source] [source]

See all 12 sources

Proposition 4

Repeals Prohibition Against Public Funding of Election Campaigns. Legislative Statute.

Put on the Ballot by the Legislature Repeals prohibition on state and local governments offering public funding of candidate election campaigns. Public funding programs may not use funds earmarked for education, transportation, or public safety.

A YES vote meansState and local governments could create public campaign financing programs for public office candidates, subject to limits on which public funds could be used, how the public funds could be used, and who could receive them.

A NO vote meansState and most local governments would remain unable to create public campaign finance programs for public office candidates.

Fiscal effect: Ongoing costs to the state of a few hundred thousand dollars each year for the Fair Political Practices Commission to answer questions from state and local governments about public campaign finance programs.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

Repeal would enable small-donor financing reforms Public financing can make small contributions more valuable through matching funds or vouchers, reducing candidates’ reliance on wealthy donors. Evidence from Seattle and New York City indicates that carefully designed programs can increase small-donor participation and broaden the contributor base. Proposition 4 would remove a constitutional obstacle to adopting such systems in California. [source] [source]
A constitutional repeal preserves policy flexibility Proposition 4 does not mandate a particular public-financing model or appropriation. It would allow the Legislature and local governments to choose whether to create grants, matching funds, vouchers, or other systems and to revise them as evidence develops. This flexibility is useful because program outcomes vary substantially by design. [source] [source]
Public financing may lower barriers to candidacy Campaigns financed primarily through large private donations can disadvantage candidates who lack established donor networks. Research and program evaluations suggest that subsidies can encourage candidate entry and help candidates reach more small donors. The effect would depend on later legislation, but repeal would make those reforms legally available. [source]

Arguments against

Repeal alone would not change campaign financing The measure would remove a prohibition but would not establish a program, fund candidates, or reduce private-money influence. Any practical benefit would require subsequent legislation, appropriations, administration, and enforcement. Voters therefore cannot treat repeal itself as evidence that campaign financing will improve. [source] [source]
Public financing may not reduce outside spending Public subsidies do not necessarily constrain independent expenditures by corporations, unions, wealthy individuals, or outside groups. Constitutional protections limit how broadly government can regulate such spending, so publicly financed candidates could still face high-spending opponents or outside advertising. [source]

See all 6 sources

Proposition 5

Changes Recall Election Process for Statewide Officers. Legislative Constitutional Amendment.

Put on the Ballot by the Legislature Under current law, voters elect replacement candidates at the same time as the recall election. This measure instead fills recall vacancies by subsequent special election or appointment.

A YES vote meansRecall elections would no longer include a question about who should fill the vacancy. Instead, vacancies typically would be filled through special elections or appointments, depending on the office and timing.

A NO vote meansVoters would continue to be asked who should fill the vacancy as part of recall elections.

Fiscal effect: Net fiscal effect unknown. In the event of a recall, savings or costs of millions of dollars to administer the election depending on the office recalled.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

Existing vacancy rules may provide more continuity The measure generally applies procedures already used when state offices become vacant for reasons such as resignation or death. For the governorship, the Lieutenant Governor would assume office, with a special-election pathway in a limited early-term circumstance. This could reduce uncertainty and avoid selecting a successor through a crowded, low-information contest. [source] [source]
The current successor vote can produce a weak mandate California’s replacement contest uses plurality voting among potentially many candidates. Evidence from the 2021 recall indicates that the leading replacement candidate received fewer votes than the number of voters opposing removal, supporting the concern that removal and succession can yield conflicting mandates. Proposition 5 would separate those decisions and use a later election or established vacancy rule for… [source] [source]
Removing successor candidates could reduce some election costs The Legislative Analyst identifies potential savings from eliminating candidate information and voting materials for the replacement question, particularly when an appointment or gubernatorial succession would otherwise follow. The savings could reach millions in an individual recall, although their occurrence depends on the office and number of candidates. [source] [source]

Arguments against

Separate special elections could increase costs A recalled legislative official would typically require a separate special election, and that election might not be consolidated with a regularly scheduled election. The Legislative Analyst estimates that such an election could cost millions, offsetting or exceeding savings from a shorter recall ballot. The overall fiscal effect is explicitly unknown. [source] [source]
Appointments could shift power away from the electorate For several statewide offices, existing vacancy law relies on gubernatorial appointment rather than an immediate statewide vote. Proposition 5 would invoke those rules after a recall, creating circumstances in which the official who survives politically could be replaced by an executive appointee. That may improve continuity but weakens the claim that a recall directly determines the electorate’s preferred successor. [source] [source]
The measure removes voters’ immediate choice of successor After a successful recall, voters would no longer select a replacement in the same election. Depending on the office, the successor could instead be appointed by the Governor, supplied by succession rules, or chosen in a later special election. Opponents therefore argue that Proposition 5 reduces direct voter control over who holds the office. [source] [source]

See all 7 sources

Proposition 37

Creates Loan Program for Middle-Income Buyers of Qualified New Homes. Initiative Statute.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Authorizes $25 billion in bonds to offer eligible buyers fixed-rate mortgages for up to 17% of purchase price of a newly constructed home priced below about $1.5 million. Borrowers must be California residents, occupy the home, meet income limits, and pay at least 3% down. Bonds repaid by mortgage payments, not State.

A YES vote meansThe state would create a new homebuying assistance program. The state could sell up to $25 billion in revenue bonds to fund the program. Bonds would be paid back by homeowners' payments on their home loans.

A NO vote meansThe state would not be required to create a new homebuying assistance program.

Fiscal effect: No direct state or local costs.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

Restricting assistance to new homes may support construction Because the program is described as applying to qualified new homes, it may direct demand toward additional housing rather than only bidding up existing homes. Research finds that housing supply constraints are a major source of high prices, and policies connected to new construction can have broader benefits if they induce genuinely additional units. That outcome is not guaranteed without details on qualification… [source] [source]
The measure could reduce upfront barriers to ownership A state loan program could help otherwise creditworthy middle-income households overcome down-payment or financing constraints. Evidence on housing assistance suggests that reducing upfront barriers can increase access to homeownership for some eligible households, while existing CalHFA programs provide administrative precedent. The measure's actual reach would depend on loan terms, eligibility rules, funding, and… [source] [source]

Arguments against

Buyer assistance can be capitalized into higher prices Demand subsidies often increase prices when supply is limited, allowing sellers or builders to capture part of the assistance. California's affordability constraints make this risk relevant, especially if the program expands purchasing power without producing enough additional homes. The new-home restriction may reduce this problem only if participating construction is additional and sufficiently large. [source] [source]
The program could expose households and taxpayers to financial risk Loans can improve access while leaving recipients with repayment obligations and exposure to falling home values, income shocks, or foreclosure. Federal Reserve evidence identifies both wealth benefits and risks of homeownership, and borrower-support research suggests safeguards matter. Without publicly available details on underwriting, loss sharing, funding, and foreclosure protections, the fiscal and household… [source] [source]

See all 8 sources

Proposition 38

Authorizes Bonds for Immunology Medical Research. Initiative Statute.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Authorizes $8.4 billion in general obligation bonds for immunology and immunotherapy research, half to a single University of California-affiliated nonprofit medical research institute, half to research grants.

A YES vote meansThe state could borrow $8.4 billion to support medical research in immunology and immunotherapy conducted by California research institutes and universities.

A NO vote meansThe state could not borrow $8.4 billion to support medical research in immunology and immunotherapy conducted by California research institutes and universities.

Fiscal effect: Increased state cost of $500 million to $600 million annually for about 20 years to repay the research bond, with some or all of the cost offset if the funded research generates revenue.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

Immunotherapy has demonstrated clinical value Systematic evidence shows that immune-based treatments can benefit some patients, particularly in cancer, and the field has produced approved therapies. Additional funding could expand work on response, resistance, combination treatments, and other diseases, though results will vary by condition. [source] [source]
The measure directs funds toward California institutions and patient benefits Proposition 38 would fund California public and nonprofit research organizations, impose reporting and audit requirements, and require qualifying treatments sold in California to be offered at a discount. These provisions could retain research activity in the state and provide a direct benefit if treatments reach patients. [source] [source]
Long-term discoveries could offset some public costs The measure requires 10 percent of revenue from funded discoveries to go first toward repaying the state. Public research can generate licensing and economic benefits, so successful commercialization could reduce the net cost, although the timing and amount are uncertain. [source] [source]

Arguments against

Clinical and financial returns are highly uncertain Most research projects do not progress through discovery, clinical testing, regulatory review, and successful commercialization. Preclinical limitations and variable immunotherapy outcomes make it impossible to infer that the bond will repay itself or produce major health-care savings. [source] [source]
The bond creates a substantial guaranteed budget obligation The state would owe approximately $500 million to $600 million annually for about 20 years, regardless of whether the research succeeds. Interest makes the total cost higher than an equivalent upfront appropriation, and debt service could compete with other General Fund priorities. [source] [source]
The allocation may concentrate decision-making and reduce competition About half of the money would go to one qualifying UC-affiliated nonprofit institute, while the grant council would select applicants from member institutions. Reporting and audits improve transparency, but they do not eliminate concerns that eligibility rules could favor established institutions or narrow the research portfolio. [source] [source]

See all 15 sources

Proposition 39

Prohibits Citizens from Voting Unless They Present Government-Issued Identification. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Invalidates mail ballots that do not have last four digits of designated government-issued identification number written on envelope. Prohibits in-person voting without presenting government-issued identification.

A YES vote meansVoters would be required to present additional identifying information to elections officials each time they vote.

A NO vote meansA voter's identity would continue to be established with the voter's signature.

Fiscal effect: Costs of between tens of millions of dollars and low hundreds of millions of dollars each year to implement new voting requirements.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

The measure would create a uniform identity check Proposition 39 would replace California’s current in-person signature-based identification process with a government-issued identification check and would require a matching identifier for vote-by-mail ballots. Supporters can reasonably argue that uniform documentary verification would create a clearer eligibility-control standard, even though evidence that it would prevent common forms of election fraud is… [source] [source]
Citizenship-verification reporting could improve oversight Proposition 39 would require election officials to use best efforts to verify citizenship attestations with government data and publish county-level verification percentages. Public reporting and State Auditor audits could expose inconsistencies and encourage more systematic maintenance of voter records. However, the measure does not specify the data sources, error safeguards, or operational definition of best… [source] [source]
Identification rules may reassure skeptical voters The measure expressly aims to increase public confidence, and research indicates that voter-identification rules can affect perceptions of election legitimacy, particularly among voters already concerned about fraud. That perceptual benefit would not prove greater election accuracy, but proponents may value increased confidence as a civic outcome. The evidence is mixed and partly partisan, so the likely benefit is… [source] [source]

Arguments against

The measure could reject eligible mail ballots for matching errors Most California voters use vote-by-mail ballots, and Proposition 39 would require the envelope to contain the last four digits of the exact government-issued number designated in the voter’s registration. A voter who uses a different qualifying document, records the wrong digits, or has an incorrect registration record could have the ballot rejected unless an effective cure process is created. Existing California… [source] [source]
Identification burdens may fall unevenly across voters Research finds that strict identification requirements can impose larger burdens on people with limited documentation, unstable housing, disability-related barriers, transportation constraints, or less access to government offices. A free voter ID card removes the card fee but does not necessarily eliminate the need to obtain underlying documents, travel, correct records, or learn a new process. California-specific… [source] [source]
The evidence for preventing impersonation is weak The principal fraud target described in the measure is voter impersonation, but empirical research indicates that documented in-person impersonation is rare. California already verifies vote-by-mail signatures and uses registration checks, so the incremental security effect of requiring identification is uncertain. Identification could therefore impose substantial administrative and access costs without preventing… [source] [source]

See all 17 sources

Proposition 40

Imposes One-Time Tax on Certain Taxpayers. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Imposes 5% tax on certain taxpayers with assets over $1 billion; revenue primarily for health care. Exempts revenues from constitutional requirements for school funding and spending limit.

A YES vote meansThe state would collect a one-time tax from billionaires equal to 5 percent of their wealth.

A NO vote meansThe state would not collect a one-time tax from billionaires equal to 5 percent of their wealth.

Fiscal effect: Temporary revenue increase of tens of billions of dollars spread over several years from wealth tax on billionaires. Possible ongoing decrease of less than $1 billion per year in income tax revenue from billionaires.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

The measure could provide substantial temporary funding The official fiscal analysis says Proposition 40 would probably raise tens of billions of dollars over several years. Because the measure directs most proceeds to health care and bars using them to replace existing funding, approval could provide resources during a period of funding pressure. [source] [source]
Health-care spending can improve access and outcomes Research on Medicaid coverage and expansion generally finds improved access and associations with better health outcomes. Proposition 40 would dedicate 90% of its receipts to public health-care services, so the measure has a plausible mechanism for producing broad benefits, although the eventual effectiveness would depend on implementation. [source] [source]
The one-time structure may limit permanent exposure Unlike an annual wealth tax, Proposition 40 is designed as a one-time levy, with payment spread over several years at the taxpayer’s option. This could reduce continuing incentives for relocation or long-term portfolio restructuring compared with a recurring tax, although the initial liability may still affect behavior. [source] [source]

Arguments against

The measure could face legal challenges Legal scholarship identifies unresolved questions about whether wealth taxes are direct taxes and how constitutional restrictions apply. Although Proposition 40 includes state constitutional language, litigation could delay collections, increase costs, or alter the measure’s operation. [source] [source]
Revenue estimates are unusually uncertain The amount collected depends on volatile asset prices, valuation of private businesses and other assets, compliance, avoidance, and the timing of payments. The official analysis explicitly says the amount and timing are very hard to predict, while U.S. tax-policy research identifies the same design problems as central limitations of wealth-tax forecasts. [source] [source]
Administration could be complex and costly Valuing private companies, intellectual property, art, collectibles, and other covered assets would require specialized assessments and enforcement. The official analysis projects administrative costs of tens of millions of dollars annually for several years, and international evidence shows that offshore ownership can complicate collection. [source] [source]

See all 11 sources

Proposition 41

Prohibits New State Taxes That Exclude Revenues from State Spending Limit. Requires Audits for New State Special Taxes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Nullifies state taxes enacted after January 1, 2026 that exempt their revenues from voter-approved state spending limit. Requires pre-election and recurring audits of programs funded by new special taxes.

A YES vote meansWhen special taxes are proposed by voter initiatives, the California State Auditor would review programs funded by the tax before the initiative appears on the ballot. The California State Auditor also would regularly review programs funded by special taxes approved by voters or the Legislature. In addition, the state might not be able to exclude any new special tax spending from its spending limit.

A NO vote meansThe California State Auditor's responsibility to review government programs would not change. The state spending limit requirements would not change.

Fiscal effect: The net fiscal effect is unknown as it depends on future decisions by voters, the Legislature, and other policymakers.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

The measure could limit budget workarounds Restricting new taxes that exclude revenue from the state spending limit could reduce opportunities to move revenues outside the ordinary constitutional spending-limit framework. The LAO’s explanation of Proposition 41 and the existing Article XIII B framework are the strongest evidence for this accountability rationale. Whether the restriction materially changes future budgets depends on how broadly the amendment… [source] [source]
Audits could increase transparency for dedicated taxes Requiring audits of new state special taxes could give voters and policymakers more information about whether dedicated revenues are collected and spent as promised. Existing Controller and State Auditor materials show that California has audit institutions, but Proposition 41 could require scrutiny at the creation of new special taxes rather than relying only on discretionary or later reviews. The strength of this… [source] [source]

Arguments against

Audits may duplicate existing oversight California already has financial reporting and audit institutions operated by the State Controller and State Auditor. If Proposition 41 requires audits without providing additional authority, resources, or consequences, it could add administrative costs without producing proportionate accountability gains. The available government materials establish existing oversight, but the proposition-specific analysis is… [source] [source]
The spending-limit rule could reduce fiscal flexibility California’s spending-limit system is already technically complex and interacts with revenue classifications and changing economic conditions. Adding constitutional restrictions on new tax structures could make it harder for lawmakers to design dedicated funding mechanisms or respond to emerging needs without seeking another constitutional amendment. Prior LAO analyses support the complexity concern, while the… [source] [source]

See all 8 sources

Proposition 42

Prohibits New State Personal Property Taxes and Certain Retroactive State Taxes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Prohibits any new state tax (1) imposed on the ownership of personal property (all things people own other than real estate), or (2) that applies retroactively based on taxpayer's past activities. Nullifies taxes enacted after January 1, 2026 that conflict with this measure.

A YES vote meansThe state could not establish new taxes on the ownership of financial assets or other personal property.

A NO vote meansThe state would continue to have the option to establish new taxes on the ownership of financial assets or other personal property.

Fiscal effect: Possibility that tax revenues will not go up as much in the future.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

The measure would protect taxpayers from new state taxes Proposition 42 would place the prohibition in the Constitution, making it harder for future legislatures to impose a new state tax on personal property. Its restriction on certain retroactive taxes could also improve predictability for taxpayers and businesses. The official text and voter guide establish these protections, while broader tax-policy research identifies investment and compliance benefits from limiting… [source] [source]
Constitutional protection may increase legal certainty A clear constitutional rule against specified retroactive state taxes could reduce uncertainty about whether past transactions may later be taxed. Legal analysis recognizes that retroactive taxation can create due-process concerns, even though existing constitutional doctrine sometimes permits limited retroactivity. Proposition 42 would provide a broader state-law constraint than case-by-case litigation alone. [source] [source]
Tax limits may improve investment incentives Business personal-property taxes can raise the cost of equipment and other mobile capital, potentially discouraging investment or encouraging firms to locate elsewhere. Limiting the state’s ability to create such taxes could reduce those incentives and simplify planning. This is a general economic inference rather than a California-specific forecast, so its magnitude is uncertain. [source]

Arguments against

The measure could reduce future fiscal flexibility Constitutional tax restrictions can limit a legislature’s ability to respond to recessions, emergencies, or changing revenue needs. The LAO’s analysis of California’s volatile tax system and research on tax limitations indicate that narrower tax authority may force spending cuts, borrowing, or taxes on other bases. The actual effect depends on whether California would otherwise enact the prohibited taxes. [source] [source]
The measure may shift taxes rather than reduce government costs If future policymakers cannot use the prohibited tax bases, they may seek revenue from income, sales, real-property, or other taxes instead. Comparative property-tax evidence shows that removing a tax base can require replacement revenue or reduce public services. Proposition 42 therefore may change who pays rather than produce an equivalent reduction in government obligations. [source]

See all 8 sources

Proposition 43

Limits Voters’ Ability to Raise Revenues for Local Government Services. Legislative Constitutional Amendment.

Put on the Ballot by the Legislature Limits voters' ability to pass voter-proposed local special taxes by increasing percentage of votes needed to approve such ballot measures from a majority (over 50%) to two-thirds, beginning January 1, 2027.

A YES vote meansCertain local government taxes would require two-thirds approval by voters.

A NO vote meansCertain local government taxes could continue to be approved by voters with a majority vote.

Fiscal effect: Possibility that local government tax revenues will not go up as much in the future due to a higher vote threshold for certain taxes.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

A revenue limit could constrain local tax burdens If Proposition 43 reduces the range or ease of local revenue measures, residents could face fewer locally imposed taxes or charges. The available background literature on California revenue limits is relevant to that possibility, but no retrieved source quantifies the effect of this proposal specifically. [source] [source]
The amendment could increase voter control over local taxation Supporters could argue that limiting revenue authority preserves taxpayer control and prevents local officials from expanding revenues without sufficiently broad consent. This argument depends on the proposal’s actual voting thresholds and scope, which were not available in the retrieved evidence. [source] [source]

Arguments against

Limits could reduce funding for local services Restricting voters’ ability to raise local revenues may make it harder for communities to fund schools, transportation, public safety, housing, and other services when state or federal funding is insufficient. PPIC’s research on local revenue measures is relevant background, but it does not establish Proposition 43’s likely magnitude of impact. [source] [source]
A statewide rule may fit local conditions poorly California communities differ in service needs, tax bases, and preferences. A constitutional restriction applying statewide could reduce local flexibility, although the retrieved sources do not reveal whether Proposition 43 contains exemptions or differentiated rules. [source] [source]

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Proposition 44

Requires Community Health Clinics Spend 90% Of Revenue on Program Services. Initiative Statute.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Imposes penalties on nonprofit Federally Qualified Health Centers (community clinics providing primary care to medically underserved areas and populations) that spend less than 90% of revenue on "program services" advancing their charitable purpose, including but not limited to patient services.

A YES vote meansCertain private nonprofit health care clinics would have to spend at least 90 percent of their revenue each year on providing health care services.

A NO vote meansThe new requirement on health care clinic spending would not go into effect.

Fiscal effect: Increased state costs in the low tens of millions of dollars per year, covered by fees.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

The measure could direct more money toward patient services A statutory minimum could limit excessive administrative or nonprogram spending and make clinics more visibly accountable for using revenue to provide care. The official text and fiscal analysis are the decisive sources for whether the 90% threshold is workable and enforceable, while nonprofit reporting rules show that clinics already operate under accountability requirements. [source] [source]
A clear ratio may improve transparency for donors and taxpayers A uniform spending benchmark would give the public an easily understood measure of how much clinic revenue reaches defined services. Research on overhead perceptions indicates that donors often use spending ratios when judging nonprofits, although a ratio may not accurately capture quality or long-term effectiveness. [source] [source]

Arguments against

The rule may not improve health outcomes Evidence on federally qualified health centers suggests that payment models and care-delivery incentives affect performance, while Proposition 44 focuses on an accounting ratio. The available peer-reviewed study does not show that a 90% spending mandate improves access, quality, or patient outcomes. [source]
A rigid cap could treat necessary infrastructure as waste Clinics need administration, compliance, information technology, staffing systems, fundraising, and evaluation to deliver care and remain eligible for public programs. Nonprofit-sector guidance and IRS requirements support the concern that reducing or reclassifying these functions could weaken operations rather than increase services. [source] [source]

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Proposition 45

Modifies Environmental Review for Certain Projects. Initiative Statute.

Put on the Ballot by Petition Signatures Amends California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) to expedite environmental review for certain projects (including most housing, transportation, water, and health projects) by setting deadlines to complete environmental review and resolve lawsuits challenging project approvals.

A YES vote meansCertain public and private projects would be eligible for new project review and court challenge procedures. For example, new procedures would tighten time limits for environmental review and reduce the scope of what courts can consider when reviewing legal challenges.

A NO vote meansPublic and private projects would continue to use existing project review and court challenge procedures.

Fiscal effect: Initial costs for state and local governments, likely in the high tens of millions of dollars-potentially exceeding $100 million-annually, partly covered by fees. Uncertain, potentially more significant positive or negative longer-term fiscal effects.

Quoted from the official voter guide.

The evidence on both sides

Arguments for

Binding deadlines could reduce administrative delay Proposition 45 would impose deadlines for application completeness, environmental impact reports, permits, and court challenges. Evidence that local review and commission processes affect housing completion time supports the mechanism by which faster procedures could reduce delays, although the measure's actual effect remains untested. [source] [source]
The measure preserves formal agency approval authority The text expressly states that public agencies retain authority to approve or disapprove essential projects and that projects remain subject to environmental review. This means the measure does not automatically authorize covered projects, even though it changes the procedures and legal remedies surrounding review. [source]
Faster approvals could lower some project costs The measure covers housing and public infrastructure categories for which delay can increase financing, administrative, and construction costs. California's high housing costs have multiple causes, including regulatory constraints, so Proposition 45 could address one contributor, but available evidence does not quantify the resulting savings. [source] [source]

Arguments against

Reduced alternatives may weaken environmental mitigation Under the measure, an applicant may develop only one project alternative for agency consideration, while current CEQA practice requires agencies to consider multiple feasible alternatives that could reduce environmental impacts. Limiting alternatives could reduce opportunities to redesign projects before approval. [source] [source]
Restricted court remedies could make violations harder to correct Proposition 45 would limit what courts may consider and prevent them from stopping an entire project when part of the CEQA review is deficient. Critics argue this could allow construction to proceed while environmental problems are corrected, reducing the practical deterrent of CEQA litigation. [source] [source]
Shorter participation and narrower consultation could exclude communities The measure limits public-comment periods and narrows required consultation to federally recognized California tribes. State guidance identifies meaningful participation and attention to disproportionate burdens as components of environmental justice, so these procedural limits could reduce input from affected communities. [source] [source]

See all 10 sources

Dates, deadlines, polling places and eligibility: see the California Secretary of State.